Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/16/2025

On May 16, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Red Sox at 22-23 and the Braves at 22-22. This game marks the first in a series that could provide a spark for either team to improve their standing.

Projected to take the mound for the Red Sox is Garrett Crochet, who ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an excellent ERA of 1.93 this year, Crochet has demonstrated elite capabilities, though his 3.13 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out an impressive 7.4 batters on average.

On the other side, Chris Sale is set to start for the Braves. Although he holds a respectable ERA of 3.97, his 1-3 record indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Sale's 30.2% strikeout rate could give him an edge against the Red Sox's high-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. He also projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 7.5 batters.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB, showing a strong capacity to score runs, while the Braves sit at 16th. According to current projections, the Red Sox are favored with an average implied team total of 4.14 runs, suggesting that they could have the upper hand in this matchup, especially with Crochet's elite pitching form.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all SPs, Chris Sale's fastball spin rate of 2215 rpm ranks in the 25th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 8.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Bregman has been hot recently, cracking 4 dingers in the last two weeks.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.3, Boston Red Sox 4.01

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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