Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/13/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves are set to clash on June 13, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in the third game of their interleague series. The Orioles are enjoying a stellar season with a 45-22 record, while the Braves are having an above-average season at 35-30. This matchup features two pitchers with contrasting profiles: Cole Irvin for the Orioles and Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves.

Cole Irvin, a left-hander, has been fortunate this season. Despite an impressive 2.87 ERA, his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he may not sustain his current level of performance. He has a 6-2 record in 10 starts, but projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate he might struggle against the Braves, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs and 6.2 hits over 5.4 innings.

On the other hand, Reynaldo Lopez has been a standout for the Braves with an excellent 1.85 ERA and a 3-2 record in 11 starts. However, his xFIP of 3.71 suggests he has also benefited from some luck. Projections indicate he might allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.0 hits over 4.9 innings, which could present challenges against a potent Orioles lineup.

The Orioles' offense ranks 3rd in MLB, featuring the top spot in home runs and 8th in batting average. Over the last week, Gunnar Henderson has been their standout hitter, posting a .360 batting average with 2 home runs and a 1.189 OPS in six games. Conversely, the Braves' offense ranks 11th, with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge recently, boasting a .417 batting average and a 1.065 OPS over the last week.

The betting markets see this as an evenly matched game, with both teams having a -110 moneyline and an implied win probability of 50%. However, given the Orioles' stronger overall season and offensive firepower, they might have a slight edge in this matchup. Expect a high-scoring affair, as indicated by the game total set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his last 3 starts, Reynaldo Lopez has experienced a big jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2047 rpm over the whole season to 2120 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Adam Duvall has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cole Irvin is a pitch-to-contact type (16th percentile K%) — great news for Duvall.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order profiles as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cole Irvin has averaged 17.2 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ryan Mountcastle's quickness has dropped off this season. His 28.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.47 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Baltimore Orioles hitters as a unit rank among the best in the league since the start of last season (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+22.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 31 away games (+13.24 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.12 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.95

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