Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 7/10/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On July 10, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field in the third game of their series. The Diamondbacks, sitting at 45-47, are having an average season, while the Braves, with a 51-39 record, are enjoying a solid campaign. This National League matchup features two pitchers with contrasting seasons: Slade Cecconi for the Diamondbacks and Charlie Morton for the Braves.

Cecconi, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this year, holding a 2-6 record and a troubling 6.10 ERA. Despite his rough season, his 4.47 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and might see better days ahead. Cecconi is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 0.9 walks while striking out 4.4 batters on average.

Morton, also a right-hander, has been more reliable for the Braves with a 5-5 record and a respectable 3.96 ERA. The projections indicate he should pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 2.4 walks while striking out 5.4 batters. Morton's consistency could be crucial for the Braves in this contest.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 10th in MLB, boasting the 8th-best team batting average. However, their power numbers are average, ranking 17th in home runs. Christian Walker has been a standout, hitting .333 with a 1.212 OPS over the last week, including four home runs.

The Braves' offense is ranked 13th overall but has struggled with batting average (17th) and stolen bases (26th). They do, however, rank 12th in home runs. Austin Riley has been their best hitter recently, with a .280 average and a 1.007 OPS over the past week.

Bullpen depth could be a deciding factor in this game. The Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 17th, while the Braves' bullpen is 7th, suggesting a potential edge for Atlanta in late-game situations.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 53% win probability, which is 8% higher than the betting market suggests. With the projections favoring Arizona, there might be value in betting on the Diamondbacks to come out on top in this closely contested game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Charlie Morton must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary offerings a lot this year: 63.2% of the time, placing in the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ketel Marte has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season's 91.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 82 games (+23.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.9 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.94

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.