Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Pick For 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals will face off against the Atlanta Braves on September 10, 2024, in what marks the first game of their series at Nationals Park. In the standings, the Braves are vying for a Wild Card spot with a record of 78-66, while the Nationals' disappointing 64-79 record shows they are well out of contention this season.

In their previous outings, the Nationals lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-3, a result that highlights their struggles this year. Meanwhile, the Braves fell short in a narrower defeat against the Cincinnati Reds, losing 1-0. Both teams come into this game with some momentum for improvement despite their respective recent results.

MacKenzie Gore, projected to start for the Nationals, has had an up-and-down season with a record of 8-11 and an ERA of 4.32. However, he pitched well in his last start, going six innings with only one earned run, which could signal a bit of a turnaround. On the other hand, Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for the Braves. He boasts an impressive 2.04 ERA and a solid 8-5 win-loss record this season. However, Lopez's FIP suggests that he may have been a bit lucky this year, which raises questions about his potential effectiveness moving forward.

Despite the Braves being favored, betting enthusiasts might find value in the Nationals. The leading MLB projection system shows a close matchup between these teams, with projections putting the Nationals at a 49% chance of winning compared to their implied 42%. Given that the Nationals have shown flashes of talent, particularly in stolen bases, they could surprise against a strong Braves offense that ranks 5th in home runs but has struggled with consistency. This matchup promises to be intriguing as both teams look to assert themselves in different ways.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez projects for a combined average of 7.1 strikeouts plus walks today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, putting up a .398 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .347 — a .051 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has gone to his change-up 6.5% more often this season (9.4%) than he did last season (2.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Dylan Crews is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 141 games (+6.88 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 139 games (+31.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 50% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.49 vs Washington Nationals 4.18

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