Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants Pick For 8/15/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants host the Atlanta Braves on August 15, 2024, in a pivotal matchup between two National League teams. Both squads are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Giants holding a record of 61-61, while the Braves sit slightly above at 63-56.

In their most recent performance, the Giants were destroyed 13-2 by Atlanta and will look to bounce back against them today. Logan Webb is projected to take the mound for the Giants. Webb has been solid this season with a Win/Loss record of 10-8 and an impressive ERA of 3.32. However, his peripheral stats suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, as his xERA is 0.89 points higher. He projects to pitch 6.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs. The Giants' strength lies in their elite bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, which could be crucial if Webb runs into trouble.

On the other side, Max Fried is set to start for the Braves. Fried, with a 7-6 record and a 3.56 ERA, has been effective in his 20 starts this year. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings and also allow around 2.1 earned runs. While Fried has been a consistent presence, the Braves’ offense ranks 13th overall, showcasing potential but underperforming compared to their 10th rank in home runs.

With the Giants' offense ranking 15th in MLB, they have the potential to score, but their lack of power—ranking 23rd in home runs—could hinder them against a solid Braves pitching staff. The Game Total is set low at 7.0 runs, indicating a potential pitching duel that favors the elite performances of both starting pitchers. Betting markets are reflecting a tight competition, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline, suggesting a game that could go either way. As the Giants look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, all eyes will be on how Webb and Fried perform.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because groundball hitters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Max Fried and his 51.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position today squaring off against 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Orlando Arcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Matt Olson pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Webb has used his secondary offerings 7.4% less often this season (55.3%) than he did last year (62.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Matt Chapman has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 96.3-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.26 vs San Francisco Giants 3.43

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