Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants Pick For 8/12/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Atlanta Braves on August 12, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. Currently, the Giants sit at 61-59, having an average season, while the Braves are slightly ahead at 61-56, marking them as a team having an above-average year. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the first game in their series, adding an extra layer of competitiveness.

In their last outings, both of these teams suffered losses and will look to rebound here. Over the past week, Jorge Soler has been on fire, boasting a .450 batting average and 4 home runs, making him a key player to watch. In contrast, the Giants' best hitter, Michael Conforto, has also been solid, but his recent performance doesn't quite match Soler's explosive output.

On the mound, Blake Snell is projected to face Chris Sale. Snell, ranked 18th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a somewhat unlucky season with a 4.31 ERA, but his 3.39 xFIP suggests he might be due for better results. Additionally, he projects to strike out 7.5 batters while allowing 2.0 earned runs and 4.0 hits. Meanwhile, Sale is having an elite season, ranked 4th in the league with a 2.75 ERA and an impressive ability to minimize walks, which could neutralize the Giants' patient approach at the plate.

With the Game Total set at a low 6.5 runs and both teams having low implied run totals of 3.25, expectations for offensive fireworks may be tempered. However, given the Giants' strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, they may have the edge in a tight contest. This game is shaping up to be a compelling battle of pitching and strategy, where both teams will look to gain an early advantage in this pivotal series.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Chris Sale has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has had positive variance on his side given the .055 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell's curveball rate has risen by 6.3% from last year to this one (19.8% to 26.1%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+7.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 112 games (+19.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+14.85 Units / 31% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.84 vs San Francisco Giants 3.33

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