Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Prediction For 7/14/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park on July 14, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Padres are having an average season with a 50-48 record, while the Braves are enjoying a good season at 52-42. This National League matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting profiles: Randy Vasquez for the Padres and Chris Sale for the Braves.

Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher, has been struggling this year, holding a 2-4 record with a 4.66 ERA. Despite his average ERA, his 6.32 xERA suggests he's been lucky and could be due for a downturn. Vasquez will face a Braves offense that ranks 14th in MLB, with an unimpressive 18th in team batting average. Vasquez's low walk rate (5.5 BB%) could work against him, as the Braves are the 5th least walk-prone team, potentially making it easier for them to capitalize on their opportunities.

On the mound for the Braves, Chris Sale is having an elite season, reflected in his 12-3 record and a stellar 2.74 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Sale's 2.22 FIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and may perform even better going forward. He will face a Padres offense that ranks 2nd in team batting average and 11th in home runs. While Sale's high strikeout rate (33.0 K%) is a strength, the Padres are the 3rd least strikeout-prone team, potentially neutralizing one of his key advantages.

The Padres' bullpen ranks 12th in the Power Rankings, while the Braves' bullpen is 8th, indicating a slight edge to Atlanta in late-game scenarios. Both teams have potent offenses, but the projections favor the Braves' ability to capitalize on Vasquez's struggles and Sale's ability to navigate the Padres' lineup effectively.

The betting odds reflect this, with the Braves as the clear favorite (-175) and an implied win probability of 62%. The Padres, pegged as underdogs (+155), have an implied win probability of 38%. With a game total set at 7.5 runs, expect strong pitching performances but lean towards the Braves to come out on top.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.90 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.89 — a 1 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, putting up a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .068 discrepancy.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+20.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.73 vs San Diego Padres 3.82

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