Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Braves
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has a record of 2-2 this year with an ERA of 3.53. While his ERA is good, his 4.92 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. The Braves, on the other hand, have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this game.

The Pirates offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, while the Braves offense ranks as the 6th best. The Braves have been excelling in team batting average and home runs, ranking first in both categories.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +135, giving them an implied win probability of 41%. The Braves, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a win probability of 47%, while the Braves have a win probability of 53%. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close one.

Overall, this game between the Pirates and the Braves promises an exciting matchup. The Braves' strong offense will face off against the Pirates' below-average pitching, while the Pirates will look to overcome their offensive struggles against the Braves' solid pitching.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Travis d'Arnaud is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2052 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2001 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Rowdy Tellez has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 23.36 ft/sec to 24.18 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 83rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+16.85 Units / 36% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.06 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.53

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.