Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees Prediction For 6/22/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will host the Atlanta Braves at Yankee Stadium on June 22, 2024, for the second game of their interleague series. The Yankees are having a stellar season with a 51-27 record, while the Braves are also enjoying success at 42-31. This game features Marcus Stroman taking the mound for New York against Charlie Morton for Atlanta. Both starters have posted solid numbers this season, but their underlying metrics suggest potential vulnerabilities.

Stroman enters the game with a 3.08 ERA but a 4.67 xFIP, indicating he has benefited from some luck. On the other hand, Morton sports a 3.91 ERA, which is respectable, but his projections suggest struggles ahead, forecasting him to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs and pitch only 5.0 innings.

The Yankees' offense is among the league’s elite, ranking 2nd in home runs and 2nd in overall offensive power. Over the past week, Aaron Judge has been particularly hot, with a .313 batting average, two home runs, and a 1.076 OPS over five games. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense, ranked 13th, has seen standout performances from Austin Riley, who has hit .500 with three home runs and a 1.775 OPS in the last seven days.

One key matchup advantage lies in the Yankees' ability to draw walks. New York ranks 2nd in walks, while Morton has struggled with control, posting a 9.8% walk rate. Conversely, Stroman’s high walk rate may be mitigated by the Braves' impatience at the plate, as Atlanta ranks 4th in least walks drawn.

Betting lines favor the Yankees with a moneyline of -140, giving them a 56% implied win probability. Given their strong offense and favorable pitching matchup, the Yankees' implied team total of 4.81 runs looks promising. The Braves, with an implied total of 4.19 runs, will need Morton and their bullpen, ranked 6th, to hold steady against a potent Yankee lineup. Expect a closely contested game with high stakes as both teams aim to bolster their strong seasons.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 14.9% more often this year (60.3%) than he did last year (45.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 101.9-mph figure last year has fallen off to 99.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+19.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 63 games (+19.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.45 Units / 28% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.7 vs New York Yankees 5.4

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