Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins host the Atlanta Braves on August 27, 2024, in a critical interleague matchup at Target Field. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Twins sitting at 72-59 and the Braves at 71-60, making this game significant as they jockey for favorable playoff positioning. The Twins and Braves faced off yesterday, with the Braves securing a 10-6 victory that sets the stage for today’s contest.

On the mound, the Twins will rely on Simeon Woods Richardson, who has made 22 starts this season and holds a 5-3 record with a solid 3.69 ERA. However, he isn't without his struggles; he ranks as only the 123rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s been somewhat lucky this year. His projections suggest that while he is expected to pitch around 4.8 innings, he may allow 2.6 earned runs, with some concerning stats around hits and walks.

In contrast, the Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the hill. Schwellenbach has been impressive, ranking as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, and though his record is slightly below .500 at 5-6, his 3.94 ERA masks a more favorable outlook, thanks to a low xFIP of 3.12. He’s projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 5.7 batters.

Offensively, the Twins boast the 6th best lineup in MLB, excelling particularly in home runs, while the Braves sit at 13th. With both lineups capable of producing runs, the projected total for this game is set at 8.0, indicating expectations for a competitive affair. With the Twins currently favored on the moneyline at -110, bettors might find value in their ability to build off yesterday's momentum against a talented Braves squad.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has tallied 17.6 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Despite posting a .403 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been lucky given the .054 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Simeon Woods Richardson will have a disadvantage matching up with 7 hitters in the projected lineup of the same handedness today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Edouard Julien is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Minnesota really struggles to hit the ball hard. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (90.8 mph) ranks among the league's worst: #25 in baseball this year.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 107 games (+26.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5 vs Minnesota Twins 4.4

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