Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 26, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Twins currently hold a record of 72-58, while the Braves sit at 70-60. With both teams showcasing solid performances this season, this Interleague matchup carries significant weight in the standings.

In their last game, the Braves fell short against the Washington Nationals, while the Twins were beaten by the St. Louis Cardinals. The Twins, who are having a good season, will be relying on Bailey Ober to deliver on the mound. Ober, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 12-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.54. However, his projections indicate he may struggle with allowing 4.9 hits and 1.0 walks on average today.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher who ranks 9th overall in MLB. Fried's 7-7 record and ERA of 3.57 show he can handle pressure, and he projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing only 2.4 earned runs, which could be pivotal in keeping the Twins' offense at bay.

The Twins boast the 6th best offense in MLB, with a particular strength in home runs, ranking 8th. However, their weakness in stolen bases could be a disadvantage against Fried's consistent strike-throwing ability. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense, while average overall at 13th, has the potential to create scoring opportunities with their power, as they rank 10th in home runs.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup promises to be closely contested. Both teams’ moneylines are currently set at -110, indicating that betting markets expect a tight game. The Twins may have the edge with Ober's recent form, but Fried's elite status on the mound could turn the tide in favor of the Braves.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Max Fried will benefit from squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sean Murphy is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Atlanta Braves batters collectively have been one of the best in MLB this year () when assessing their 90-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all SPs, Bailey Ober's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 17th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Trevor Larnach has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 96.4-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 117 games (+32.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 76% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.85 vs Minnesota Twins 3.77

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