Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 4/13/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 -115, Marlins 1.5 -105
• Money Line: Braves -195, Marlins 170
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 64%
• Miami Marlins - 36%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 59.03%
• Miami Marlins - 40.97%

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins are set to host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park on April 13, 2024. The Marlins, with a disappointing 2-12 record this season, are hoping to turn their luck around. On the other hand, the Braves are having a great season with an impressive 8-4 record.

The Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Max Meyer, who has shown promise despite the team's struggles. Meyer has a 1-0 record with an excellent 2.45 ERA this year. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. In contrast, the Braves will send out left-handed pitcher Chris Sale, who is considered an elite pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sale has a 1-0 record with a 3.37 ERA and a 2.42 xFIP, indicating that he has been unlucky and may perform even better going forward.

This game marks the second matchup in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Marlins played against an unknown opponent, while the Braves faced off against another unknown team.

The Marlins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league. In contrast, the Braves boast the best offense in MLB, leading in team batting average and home runs. Their offense ranks seventh in stolen bases.

As for the bullpens, the Marlins rank 24th, while the Braves rank eighth according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Braves have an advantage in the later innings.

In terms of the betting odds, the Marlins are considered big underdogs with a moneyline of +165, giving them a 36% implied win probability. The Braves, on the other hand, are the favorites with a moneyline of -195, giving them a 64% implied win probability.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.60 runs, while the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.90 runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Chris Sale is expected to tally an average of 6.3 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Typically, bats like Orlando Arcia who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Meyer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 2nd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Over the last 14 days, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 25% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Braves vs Marlins Prediction: Braves 4.98 - Marlins 3.86

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