Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 -110, Marlins 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Braves -185, Marlins 160
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 63%
• Miami Marlins - 37%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 65.24%
• Miami Marlins - 34.76%

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park on April 12, 2024. The Marlins, who currently hold a disappointing 2-11 record this season, are looking to turn their fortunes around against the Braves, who are enjoying a strong start with a 7-4 record.

The Marlins will rely on left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers to start the game. Despite struggling this season, Rogers has shown potential with a 5.40 ERA. His advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #171 out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating room for improvement. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, strike out 4.7 batters, and surrender 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

On the other side, the Braves will send left-handed pitcher Max Fried to the mound. Fried, considered one of the elite pitchers in the league, has a high ERA of 18.00 this season. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Fried is projected to pitch an average of 5.9 innings, allow 2.0 earned runs, strike out 5.4 batters, and give up 5.5 hits and 1.3 walks per game.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled this season, ranking as the worst team in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks third in the league, highlighting their potential. In their last game, the Marlins faced the Braves, while the Braves played against another opponent.

In terms of betting odds, the Braves are heavily favored with a moneyline of -180, implying a 62% chance of winning. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +155, have a 38% chance of winning according to the odds. Based on the current odds, the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, while the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.68 runs.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between struggling Marlins and a strong Braves team. While the Marlins are looking to improve their performance, the Braves aim to continue their winning ways. It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and if the Marlins can overcome their challenging season to compete against the Braves.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his secondary pitches 8.7% more often this season (63.6%) than he did last year (54.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Over the past two weeks, Michael Harris II has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a -31° angle.

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tim Anderson has shown some bad exit velocity metrics recently, averaging just 76.4-mph on his flyballs over the last two weeks.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Avisail Garcia hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games at home (+6.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 85 of their last 150 games (+15.60 Units / 9% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 5.43 vs Miami Marlins 3.65

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.