Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Pick For 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 20, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, the matchup presents a stark contrast in fortunes for these National League East rivals. The Marlins, sitting at a dismal 56-97 record, have found themselves deeply mired at the bottom of the standings. In contrast, the Braves come in with a respectable 83-70 record, which positions them as playoff hopefuls, although they've had an above-average season by most measures.

Valente Bellozo, slated to start for Miami, is looking to defy his status as the #307 ranked pitcher out of approximately 350 MLB starters. Despite his 3.70 ERA suggesting decent performance, Bellozo's 5.46 xFIP raises concerns about his underlying performance levels, indicating he might be lucky so far. His projections for today's game are less than encouraging: averaging just 4.7 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs allowed, and 3.3 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Braves starter Charlie Morton, with an average 4.01 ERA, brings a steadier hand to the mound. He projects around 5.4 innings pitched with an average of 6.1 strikeouts, matching up well against a Marlins' offense ranked 29th in MLB.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled, ranking 29th overall in terms of underlying talent, despite an average batting average rank of 16th. Power is where they truly lack, sitting at 27th in homers. The Braves, with a more balanced attack, boast the 4th most home runs this season, a potential advantage against Bellozo's high-flyball tendency. Notably, the Braves’ bullpen, ranked 7th, outmatches Miami's 29th ranked relief corps.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Marlins as substantial underdogs with a 39% chance of winning, slightly better than the betting markets suggest. While all signs point to a Braves victory, the potential value in betting on an underdog like Miami could intrigue the savvy bettor.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton was rolling in his last start and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Miami (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Valente Bellozo (39.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Atlanta's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Griffin Conine has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 77 games at home (+32.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 125 games (+23.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.63 vs Miami Marlins 4.26

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