Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Atlanta Braves on August 18, 2024, in the third game of this interleague series. The Angels currently sit at 53-69, having endured a tough season, while the Braves find themselves in a better position at 64-58, boasting an above-average record.

In their most recent game, the Braves showcased their strength, winning against the Angels in a lopsided contest. The Angels will send Jack Kochanowicz to the mound, who has struggled this year. His 7.98 ERA marks him as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, where he ranks 265th out of approximately 350 pitchers. Although Kochanowicz's xFIP of 4.79 suggests he may have been unlucky, he projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, and his tendency to allow 5.8 hits on average could spell trouble against a solid Braves lineup.

Countering Kochanowicz is Charlie Morton, who has been an average performer this season with a 4.40 ERA. Morton projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing just 2.9 earned runs on average. With a strong strikeout rate of 6.2 batters per game, he seems well-equipped to challenge the Angels' struggling offense, which ranks 24th overall and 22nd in batting average.

The Braves rank 13th in MLB offensively and are 10th in home runs, giving them a distinct advantage in this matchup. While the Angels have shown some speed on the bases, their overall offensive struggles hinder their chances. The projections suggest a high-scoring game, with a total set at 9.0 runs. Despite the Angels being underdogs with a +135 moneyline, their recent performances highlight a potential for an upset as they look to build momentum against a stronger Braves team.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph drop off from last season's 94.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, hitters like Orlando Arcia who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jack Kochanowicz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Anthony Rendon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 122 games (+20.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.35 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.76

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