Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to visit Angel Stadium on August 16, 2024, they bring a solid record of 64-57 into this interleague matchup against a struggling Los Angeles Angels team that sits at 52-69. The Braves are currently positioned well in the playoff race, while the Angels are facing a disappointing season, having recently lost ground in the standings.

In their last games, the Angels lost to the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Braves were shut out by the San Francisco Giants. Despite those losses, Jorge Soler has been particularly impressive, batting .381 over the last week with 10 RBIs and 4 home runs in just 6 games. Meanwhile, the Angels' best hitter, Matt Thaiss, has put together a solid week, hitting .364 with a 1.136 OPS.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Jose Soriano, who is ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Soriano's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his average of 5.0 hits and 1.9 walks allowed raises concerns. In contrast, the Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach, the 28th best starting pitcher, who has similar inning projections but slightly better earned run and strikeout projections.

With the Braves boasting a better overall offense, ranked 10th in home runs, and the Angels struggling with a 22nd ranking in batting average, this matchup favors Atlanta. The Angels may be underdogs with a low implied team total of 3.71 runs, but with the right performances, they could surprise. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring expectation.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, bats like Orlando Arcia who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all SPs, Jose Soriano's fastball velocity of 97.2 mph grades out in the 99th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brandon Drury is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Los Angeles Angels offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+17.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+17.70 Units / 177% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.57 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.16

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.