Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on August 17, 2024, the stakes are clear: the Angels are in a tough spot with a record of 52-69, while the Braves, at 64-57, are experiencing a solid season. The Angels have already been eliminated from winning their division, and with their current standing, their only hope might lie in a Wild Card spot. In their last matchup, the Angels scored an upset win over Atlanta, beating them 3-2.

On the mound, the Angels will start Griffin Canning, who has struggled this year with a 4-10 record and a 5.11 ERA, ranking him as the 251st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. This season, Canning projects to allow 3.2 earned runs and strike out a mere 4.7 batters on average, indicative of his underwhelming performance.

Opposing him is Chris Sale of the Braves, who stands as one of MLB's elite pitchers, ranked 4th overall with a commanding 2.61 ERA and a 13-3 record this year. Sale projects to strike out 7.4 batters today, giving him a significant edge. Despite the Braves’ potent offense ranking 13th overall, they have been less successful in the stolen base category, landing at 28th, which may highlight a reliance on power hitting.

With the Angels' recent struggles, particularly noted in their #24 ranking in offense, it's hard to see them overcoming a pitcher of Sale's caliber today. While the Game Total is set at a standard 8.0 runs, the Angels' low implied team total of 3.27 runs suggests a potentially tough outing ahead. Bettors may find value in the Braves as they come in with a high implied team total of 4.73 runs, reflecting their favorable matchup in this series.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starter, Chris Sale has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 6.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's change-up utilization has risen by 6% from last season to this one (21.8% to 27.8%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury's true offensive talent to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .091 deviation between that mark and his actual .210 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Kevin Pillar pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+18.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 43 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.51 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.98

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