Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros Prediction For 4/17/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • J.P. France - Astros
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 110, Astros 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Braves -145, Astros 125
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 57%
• Houston Astros - 43%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 61.17%
• Houston Astros - 38.83%

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

On April 17, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Atlanta Braves in an Interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park. The Astros will be the home team, while the Braves will be the away team. Both teams are coming into this game with contrasting records this season. The Astros have struggled with a 6-13 record, while the Braves have been dominant with an 11-5 record.

The Astros are projected to start J.P. France, a right-handed pitcher, while the Braves will counter with Max Fried, a left-handed pitcher. France has had a difficult season so far, with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 8.22. However, his 5.68 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Fried, on the other hand, has a win-loss record of 1-0 but an ERA of 8.74. His 3.83 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

This game is the third in the series between these two teams, with the Braves winning in Houston last night. France has started three games this year, while Fried has also made three starts.

Looking at the offensive rankings, the Astros have the third-best offense in MLB this season. They rank 14th in team batting average, 9th in home runs, and 12th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Braves have the best offense in MLB, leading in team batting average, home runs, and ranking 7th in stolen bases.

The Astros' best hitter this season has been undisclosed, while the Braves' best hitter has also not been specified. However, over the last seven games, Jose Altuve has been the Astros' best hitter, while Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves' standout player.

France, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Braves offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts least in MLB. This may give the Braves an advantage, as France may struggle to capitalize on his biggest strength. Additionally, France's high flyball rate (43%) could be troublesome against the powerful Braves offense, which leads MLB in home runs.

Max Fried, another low-strikeout pitcher, will face an Astros offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts least in MLB. This could give the Astros an advantage, as Fried may find it challenging to capitalize on his strengths.

The Game Total for this matchup is currently set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a relatively high-scoring game. The Astros are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +125, implying a 43% win probability. Conversely, the Braves are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, suggesting a 57% win probability.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (51% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

When estimating his batting average ability, Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts J.P. France in the 16th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 39 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Braves vs Astros Prediction: Braves 5.36 - Astros 3.96

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