Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves gear up for their September 19, 2024 matchup, both teams find themselves in contrasting seasons. The Braves, with an 82-70 record, are enjoying an above-average year and stand as a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -205. The Reds, in contrast, are having a below-average season at 74-79, reflecting their status as underdogs with a moneyline of +175.

Despite the odds, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a 40% chance to win, which is 5% higher than the betting market suggests. This discrepancy might entice bettors to consider the Reds as a value play.

The starting pitcher matchup features Julian Aguiar for the Reds and Chris Sale for the Braves. Aguiar, ranked 250th among MLB starting pitchers, faces a tough task against a power-hitting Braves lineup that ranks 6th in home runs. Aguiar's high-flyball tendency could play into the Braves' hands, potentially turning flyballs into home runs. He projects to pitch 4.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which could be problematic given his below-average 4.88 ERA.

Chris Sale, ranked 8th among MLB starting pitchers, has been stellar this season with a 2.35 ERA. The projections have him pitching 5.5 innings and allowing 2.4 earned runs, a solid outlook for the Braves.

Offensively, the Reds' lineup has been boosted by TJ Friedl, who is hitting .435 with a 1.130 OPS over the last week. However, the Reds' offense ranks 26th in batting average, which could be a hurdle against Sale. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler has been hot for the Braves, contributing a .350 average and a 1.209 OPS in the same span. The Reds' bullpen ranks 25th, while the Braves' is a respectable 9th.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's fastball velocity has spiked 1 mph this year (94.3 mph) over where it was last year (93.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, compiling a .394 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .045 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Julian Aguiar has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Over the past 14 days, Tyler Stephenson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 136 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 151 games (+28.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gio Urshela has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.75 Units / 97% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.09 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.38

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.