Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Pick For 6/5/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Boston Red Sox will host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park on June 5, 2024. The Red Sox, with a season record of 30-31, are having an average season, while the Braves boast an impressive 34-24 record, indicating a great season for them.

Taking the mound for the Red Sox is right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who has started seven games this year. Pivetta holds a win/loss record of 2-4 with an ERA of 4.08, which is slightly above average. However, his 3.06 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Braves will start right-handed pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach, who has started one game this year. Schwellenbach has a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 5.40, indicating a subpar performance. However, his 4.30 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and potential. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, but their home run and stolen base rankings sit at an average 18th and 16th, respectively. On the other hand, the Braves boast the 7th best offense in MLB, leading the league in both team batting average and home runs. Their stolen base ranking is also impressive, sitting at 7th.

In terms of the pitching staff, the Red Sox bullpen is ranked 26th in MLB, indicating a challenging situation for them. Conversely, the Braves bullpen ranks 11th, suggesting an average performance. These rankings are based on the advanced-stat Power Rankings, which consider underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance.

Looking at the projected statistics, Pivetta is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.7 batters, but also giving up 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Schwellenbach, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, but also giving up 5.3 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

The Red Sox are currently favored with a moneyline set at -110, implying a 50% win probability. The same goes for the Braves, also set at -110 with a 50% win probability. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation for a relatively high-scoring game.

Both teams have strong offenses and face pitchers who have had mixed performances this season. The Red Sox will rely on their solid batting average and home field advantage, while the Braves will look to their power hitting and a slightly better bullpen. It promises to be an exciting and closely contested game between these two teams.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has used his slider 11.8% more often this year (29.2%) than he did last season (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Enmanuel Valdez's speed has dropped off this season. His 26.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.86 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today’s version of the Red Sox projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+15.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.37 vs Boston Red Sox 4.98

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