Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 7/9/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On July 9, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves in the second game of their series at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are currently sitting at .500 with a 45-45 record, indicating an average season. Meanwhile, the Braves are having a better season with a 49-39 record. This game is crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum in the National League standings.

Arizona will send Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen, a right-handed pitcher, has been a reliable arm this season with a 6-4 record and a strong 3.06 ERA. However, his 3.83 xERA suggests he might have been a bit lucky and could regress. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gallen is the 12th best starting pitcher, making him an elite option. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, while striking out 6.9 batters—solid numbers that should give the D-Backs a fighting chance.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, a left-handed pitcher who has been exceptional this year. Sale boasts an 11-3 record with an excellent 2.71 ERA and is ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher by THE BAT X. He also projects to pitch 5.8 innings, but with a slightly higher earned run projection of 2.5. Sale's dominance on the mound could be a deciding factor, especially against an Arizona lineup that ranks 7th in offense and 6th in team batting average.

The D-Backs' offense, led by Christian Walker over the last week, has been on a tear. Walker has posted a .407 batting average with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs in his last 6 games, making him a key player to watch. The Braves' Ozzie Albies has also been hot, hitting .391 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs in the same span.

Arizona's bullpen, ranked 20th, could be a liability, particularly against a Braves squad that has the 6th best bullpen. The Braves' bullpen strength might be crucial in a tightly contested game, especially given the low Game Total of 7.5 runs.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the D-Backs' moneyline set at +110, implying a 46% win probability, and the Braves at -130, implying a 54% win probability. Given the pitching matchup and the Braves' stronger season, the slight edge goes to Atlanta, but don’t count out Arizona, especially with Gallen on the mound and Walker swinging a hot bat.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Adam Duvall has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 18.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 27.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Corbin Carroll hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 75 games (+28.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.11 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.13

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