Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 7/2/2025

On Tuesday, the Athletics upset the Tampa Bay Rays in extra innings. On Wednesday afternoon, they face off again, with the Rays looking to snap a three-game losing streak and the A’s looking for their third win in a row. Here, you will find my preview for this American League matchup, including my Athletics vs Rays prediction.

Our Athletics vs Rays Pick

• Pick: Rays -1.5 (-112)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 12:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Mitch Spence (OAK, 2‑3, 3.82 ERA) vs Ryan Pepiot (TB, 5‑6, 3.36 ERA)
• Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
• Broadcast: FDSSUN and NBCS‑CA

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Ryan Pepiot has been steady across 18 starts, posting a 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. Tampa Bay is 6-3 when he starts as the moneyline favorite. His strikeout prop stands at 5.5 Ks for this game.
• Mitch Spence, making just his sixth start, holds a 3.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 7.8 K/9. The A’s are only 2-3 as ML underdog when he pitches.

Bullpen usage

Tampa’s bullpen includes solid middle relievers like Edwin Uceta and Pete Fairbanks. The Athletics’ bullpen depth is thin, and with multiple pitchers on the injured list, they may be overextended after Tuesday’s extra-inning game.

Recent team streaks

• Rays: 47-39 overall, but they have lost three straight games coming into this matchup.
• Athletics: 36-52, but they have won two games in a row over the Rays and will look to build on that with another win here.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Rays are 5-5 in the last 10 games. Athletics are 2-3 in Spence’s starts.
• Totals have gone under in 3 of the Rays’ last 5 games. A’s games hit the over in 45 of 88 games.
• Rays hit well vs left-handed pitching (.259 team average). Athletics are slightly above average vs right-handed pitching (.248).
• Rays moneyline win probability is estimated around 62%-65% based on odds and my model projections.

Athletics vs Rays Model Projection

• Score Projection: Rays 5 – Athletics 3
• Win Probability: Rays 62%, Athletics 38%

Final Thoughts

The Rays are in a solid position to close the series strong. Pepiot has quietly delivered consistent quality starts, and Tampa Bay’s deeper bullpen and more consistent lineup offer an edge. While Spence may keep it competitive, the Athletics’ thin relief staff could be exposed in the late innings. The Rays’ ability to generate offense without relying solely on power gives them flexibility. Backing the Rays on the runline is the most sensible wager for me in this contest.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.