Athletics vs Houston Astros Pick – 7/24/2025

The Oakland Athletics hit the road to face the Houston Astros in an AL West matchup on Thursday night in Houston. These teams are on opposite ends of the AL West standings. Houston is red-hot and at the top of the division. The A’s are struggling along in last place. Before this worst-versus-first matchup, be sure to keep reading to get my Athletics vs Astros prediction.

Our Athletics vs Astros Pick

• Pick: Astros moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 24, 2025, 8:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino (OAK) vs Jason Alexander (HOU)
• Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Key Storylines

• Houston is on the hunt for their fifth consecutive win. They enter this series after a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• The Athletics are looking to end a four-game slide. They were most recently swept by the Texas Rangers.
• The A’s are turning to veteran Luis Severino. Severino will face a rookie starter in Jason Alexander.

Pitching Form

• Luis Severino: Severino is 1–2 with a 4.80 ERA in his last three outings. He is 3-11 this season and has a 5.10 ERA.
• Jason Alexander: Alexander is 1-0 but has an 8.40 ERA. Alexander has given up 17 hits in his first 15 innings of work. I would also like to point out that he is not the guy who played George Costanza in Seinfeld.

Bullpen Usage

• Athletics relievers have struggled all season long. The A’s rank 29th in the league in bullpen ERA. Only the Washington Nationals have been worse in that category this year.
• Houston bullpen is more reliable. They have a 3.30 bullpen ERA. That ranks fourth in the league and could play a role late in this matchup.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Houston is 4-2 against the Athletics so far this season.
• The A’s have gone 22-31 on the road this season. Houston is 33-19 at home.
• The A’s have seen 56.8% of their games go over their totals this year. Only the Mariners have gone over the total more consistently this year.
• Both of these teams have losing records on the runline this season.

Athletics vs Astros Model Projection

Score Projection: Athletics 3 – Astros 6

Win Probability: A’s 28%, Astros 72%

Final Thoughts

These teams are clearly going in different directions this year. I am admittedly a little concerned about Alexander’s ability to deliver given his lack of experience. But Severino has been dreadful on the mound for the A’s and I don’t think he’s positioned to take advantage of any struggles from Alexander. I’ll take the Astros to win this game on the moneyline at a very affordable price on Thursday.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.