Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 4/5/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 5, 2025, they find themselves struggling at 1-6 this season, while the Diamondbacks sit at a solid 5-3. This matchup is crucial for the Nationals, who are in desperate need of a turnaround, especially after dropping yesterday's game in the series.

The Nationals will send Mitchell Parker to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed start to the season. Despite his perfect 1-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.00, his 4.26 xFIP indicates that he may have been a bit lucky thus far. Parker is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.7 per game.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, also a lefty, who has had a rough start with a 5.06 ERA. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests he could improve as the season progresses. Rodriguez is projected to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. His high flyball rate (46% FB) could be a concern against a Nationals offense that has shown some power, ranking 5th in MLB with 12 home runs.

The Nationals' offense has been underwhelming overall, ranking 23rd in MLB, but they have a chance to capitalize on Rodriguez's control issues, as he has a high walk rate of 14.3%. Conversely, the Diamondbacks boast the 7th best offense, making this a classic case of a struggling team facing a more potent opponent.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, sportsbooks are anticipating a competitive matchup, and the Nationals, despite their challenges, are looking to leverage their home-field advantage to get back on track.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.6-mph mark last year has lowered to 89.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Paul DeJong, Riley Adams).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 101 games (+29.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+10.20 Units / 146% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.