Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/4/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On April 4, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Nationals Park for the first game of their series. The Nationals are struggling this season with a record of 1-5, while the Diamondbacks have found more success at 4-3. The Nationals' recent performance has been less than stellar, but they will look to turn things around against a solid D-Backs lineup.

In their last outing, the Nationals managed to avoid a shutout, but they remain one of the weakest offenses in MLB, ranking 23rd overall. On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Jake Irvin, who has a decent ERA of 3.60 this season. However, his xFIP of 4.93 raises concerns about his sustainability going forward. Irvin is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. The Nationals' bullpen, ranked 25th in MLB, could face additional pressure if Irvin struggles.

Conversely, the Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has an ERA of 4.50. Although his record is 0-1, projections suggest he might perform better than his numbers indicate. With a favorable matchup against a high-strikeout Nationals offense, Pfaadt could be poised for a strong performance.

The D-Backs' offense ranks 7th overall and is led by a player who has been on fire, with 10 RBIs and 4 home runs in the last week. As the betting favorite with an implied team total of 4.54 runs, Arizona looks like the team to beat in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Nationals, as underdogs, will need to capitalize on their opportunities to stay competitive in this game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The 5th-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 85 of their last 153 games (+6.30 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 126 games (+27.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 59% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

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