Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Pick & Preview – 6/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 20, 2024, at Nationals Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Nationals at 36-37 and the D-Backs at 36-38, making this National League matchup an intriguing contest between two clubs looking to gain momentum.

On the mound, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher who has been solid this season. Gore boasts a 6-5 record with an impressive 3.24 ERA over 14 starts. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Gore is ranked as the 59th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he has been quite effective. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters, which is a strong showing.

The D-Backs will counter with Ryne Nelson, a right-hander who has struggled this season. Nelson's 4-5 record and a 5.49 ERA over 12 starts suggest a rough year, though his 4.52 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat unlucky. He's projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 3.3 batters, which is concerning given the Nationals' offensive struggles.

Washington's offense ranks 26th in MLB, with poor showings in team batting average (20th) and home runs (29th). However, they are 3rd in stolen bases, providing a spark on the basepaths. Jesse Winker has been their standout hitter over the last week, batting .400 with a 1.104 OPS.

Arizona, on the other hand, boasts the 7th best offense, ranking 5th in team batting average and 16th in home runs. Joc Pederson has been on fire recently, hitting .444 with a 1.355 OPS, 2 home runs, and 10 RBIs in the last week.

The Nationals' bullpen is ranked 29th, while the D-Backs' bullpen is slightly better at 24th, both indicating vulnerabilities in the late innings. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair.

With the Nationals favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they have a slight edge, especially with Gore on the mound. Given Nelson's struggles and the D-Backs' inconsistent bullpen, Washington looks poised to capitalize and secure a win in this series matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's cutter rate has increased by 9.5% from last season to this one (14.8% to 24.3%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Over the last week, Eugenio Suarez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.5-mph jump from last year's 94.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 86.8-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 11th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games (+14.70 Units / 59% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.68 vs Washington Nationals 4.42

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.