Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 6/18/2025

The Toronto Blue Jays, currently sitting in 3rd place in the American League East with a record of 39-33, host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are 3rd in the National League West at 36-36. Both teams have been competitive this season, with the Blue Jays showing signs of being above average while the Diamondbacks hover around the middle of the pack. In their last matchup, the Blue Jays defeated the Diamondbacks in the first game of a crucial interleague series that could impact postseason positioning.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will send Eric Lauer to the hill. While Lauer boasts an impressive ERA of 2.37 this season, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 4.41. Lauer's tendency to give up fly balls (46% fly ball rate) could be problematic against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in MLB with 102 home runs. Lauer projects to pitch just 4.6 innings today while allowing 2.7 earned runs, which doesn't inspire much confidence.

Contrastingly, Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for Arizona. Rodriguez's ERA of 6.27 is concerning, yet his xFIP of 3.96 indicates he could turn things around. He projects to eat up more innings, averaging 5.6 today, and while he may allow 2.9 earned runs, he brings a slightly better strikeout rate into this matchup.

At the plate, the Blue Jays rank 14th in MLB offensively, while the Diamondbacks are a robust 3rd. With the Blue Jays' power ranking at just 19th in home runs, they may struggle to keep pace with Arizona's potent lineup. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive showdown. With both teams’ bullpens ranked significantly apart—6th for Toronto and 21st for Arizona—betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a close contest where the Blue Jays might have a slight edge given their favorable pitching matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among all starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez's fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 14th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Randal Grichuk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Addison Barger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 88.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 69 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.36, Toronto Blue Jays 4.55

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays

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