Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. The Blue Jays currently sit at 38-33, showcasing an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks, at 36-35, are hovering around average. The Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the mound, who is having a solid season with a 7-3 record and a commendable 3.70 ERA. Notably, Bassitt has shown great control with a low 5.5% walk rate, which could pose challenges for a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB for most walks.

The Blue Jays have been showing offensive strength, ranking 13th overall in MLB but shining in batting average, sitting at 7th. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast a powerful offense, currently ranked 3rd, driven by their 3rd-place ranking in home runs.

Brandon Pfaadt will take the hill for Arizona, sporting an 8-4 record with a less favorable 5.37 ERA. His xFIP of 4.14 indicates he might be due for better luck, but facing a low-strikeout Blue Jays offense could work to his disadvantage. Pfaadt's struggle with limiting walks could be exploited by a disciplined Blue Jays lineup.

Given the current odds, the Blue Jays have a high implied team total of 4.61 runs, reflecting confidence in their offensive potential against Pfaadt. As both teams gear up for this crucial game, the Blue Jays, despite being slightly favored, will need to capitalize on their recent momentum to secure a win.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Toronto's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt in this game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Toronto Blue Jays bats jointly rank among the elite in Major League Baseball this year (4th-) in regard to their 90-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+13.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.55 Units / 106% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.01, Toronto Blue Jays 4.55

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.