Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/23/2025

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off on May 23, 2025, in a matchup that promises to be intriguing, especially given the recent performances of both teams. The Cardinals currently sit at 27-23, while the Diamondbacks are just a game behind at 26-24, both enjoying above-average seasons.

Miles Mikolas is projected to start for the Cardinals, bringing a mixed bag of statistics to the mound. While he boasts a solid ERA of 3.77, his xFIP of 5.06 suggests that he may have been fortunate this season, indicating potential struggles ahead. On the other hand, Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. Gallen, ranked as the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a less favorable ERA of 5.14 but is projected to improve based on his xFIP of 4.15, which hints at some bad luck.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 8th in MLB, bolstered by their impressive team batting average of .283, while the Diamondbacks are not far behind, ranking 4th overall. Arizona's power is noteworthy, as they have hit 70 home runs this season, placing them 3rd in the league. This could be a significant factor against Mikolas, who has a tendency to allow fly balls.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting market sees this as a close contest. The Cardinals have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Diamondbacks are slightly higher at 4.45. Given the Cardinals' current form and the projections suggesting they may outperform their implied win probability, this game could be a pivotal moment for St. Louis as they look to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has relied on his curveball 5% less often this year (22.7%) than he did last season (27.7%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's 91.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.8-mph fall off from last season's 93.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.83, St. Louis Cardinals 4.14

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

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