Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium for the third game of their series. After a tight contest yesterday that saw the Cardinals edge out the Diamondbacks, both teams will look to capitalize on their respective strengths in this matchup. The Cardinals currently hold a record of 29-23, putting them in a competitive position within the National League, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-26, having a slightly below-average season.

St. Louis is expected to start Sonny Gray, who boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 5-1 and an ERA of 4.02 this year, though his 3.28 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results. Gray has a high strikeout rate of 26.9% but faces a Diamondbacks offense that has been efficient in making contact, ranking as the 4th least strikeout-intensive team in MLB.

On the other hand, Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 7-3 record and a respectable 3.81 ERA. However, projections suggest he has been a bit fortunate this season, indicated by his 6.30 xERA and higher-than-average FIP. With his low strikeout rate of 18.5%, Pfaadt may struggle against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 8th in offense this season and 4th in batting average.

The game's total is set at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive encounter. The Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -130, suggesting they are seen as the slight favorites, especially given the Diamondbacks' less-than-stellar bullpen, ranked 21st in MLB. As both teams take the field, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (92.7 mph) below where it was last year (93.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Pavin Smith is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 23 games (+15.55 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 25 games at home (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.19, St. Louis Cardinals 4.13

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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