Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 5/24/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 24, 2025, they come off a strong showing in their last game, securing a victory that has kept their momentum going. Currently, the Cardinals hold a record of 28-23, positioning them above average this season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-25, reflecting an average performance.

Both teams are in the midst of a competitive series, with this matchup being the second of three. Cardinals' pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who is projected to start, has had an interesting campaign so far. With a 3-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.92, he has shown flashes of brilliance, although his 3.45 SIERA indicates he may be due for some regression. Liberatore's control is strong, evidenced by his low walk rate, which could play a vital role against the Diamondbacks' patient lineup that ranks 5th in the league in walks.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound. Kelly, with a 5-2 record and a solid 3.26 ERA, has been a reliable option for Arizona. However, his 4.10 xERA suggests that he has benefited from some good fortune this season. Both pitchers project to allow around 2.5 earned runs, setting the stage for what could be a tightly contested game.

Offensively, the Cardinals boast the 8th best offense in MLB, with a 3rd place ranking in team batting average, while the Diamondbacks come in 4th overall but have been particularly potent in terms of home runs, ranking 4th in that category. With both teams capable of putting runs on the board, the game total is set at a reasonable 8.0 runs.

Betting lines show the Cardinals and Diamondbacks both pegged at -110, indicating a close battle ahead. This matchup is crucial not only for pride but also for maintaining competitive positioning as the season progresses.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to average, Merrill Kelly has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 7 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Matthew Liberatore will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+13.05 Units / 163% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.64, St. Louis Cardinals 4.1

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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