Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 150, Cardinals 1.5 -175
• Money Line: D-Backs -110, Cardinals -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 50%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 44.74%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 55.26%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 22, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a National League matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, with a record of 9-13, are having a terrible season, while the Diamondbacks, at 11-12, are having a below-average season.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lynn has started four games this year, boasting a 1-0 record with an excellent ERA of 2.18. However, his 4.50 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who is considered a below-average pitcher. Pfaadt has started four games this year, with a 1-1 record and a not-so-impressive ERA of 5.32. However, his 3.62 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Cardinals rank as the 25th best team in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks rank as the 6th best. The Cardinals have a good team batting average, ranking 7th in the league, but their offense struggles in other areas, ranking 5th in home runs and 23rd in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have an average team batting average, ranking 11th, but excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals have the best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank 22nd. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, suggesting that this will be a close game. The Cardinals have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Diamondbacks have the same average implied team total.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The Cardinals will rely on their strong bullpen and power hitting, while the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their offensive prowess and hope for a better performance from their starting pitcher. With both teams aiming for a victory, fans can expect an exciting and closely contested game at Busch Stadium.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.2-mph decline from last year's 93.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Gabriel Moreno has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial ability for batting average), placing in the 94th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

• Hitters who can spray the ball around the field tend to have good bat control and a strong ability to generate hits.

Corbin Carroll has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Compared to average, Lance Lynn has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 8.5 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brandon Pfaadt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.22 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christian Walker has only hit the Hits Over in 3 of his last 10 games (-10.20 Units / -52% ROI)

D-Backs vs Cardinals Prediction: D-Backs 4.16 - Cardinals 4.39

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