Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/26/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 135, Mariners 1.5 -155
• Money Line: D-Backs -130, Mariners 110
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 54%
• Seattle Mariners - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 55.62%
• Seattle Mariners - 44.38%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup scheduled for April 26, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a 13-12 record this season, are having an above-average campaign, while the Diamondbacks, with a 12-14 record, are below average.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Emerson Hancock, who has had a mixed season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hancock is ranked as the #221 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in the league, ranked at #19.

Hancock has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 6.10, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Gallen, on the other hand, has started five games with a 3-1 record and an excellent ERA of 3.00. His 3.57 xERA indicates that he has been lucky so far and may regress slightly in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Mariners rank as the #22 best team in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks rank #5. However, the Mariners have struggled with team batting average, ranking #24, while the Diamondbacks have excelled in stolen bases, ranking #3.

Taking a closer look at the recent performances, the Mariners' best hitter over the last seven games has been Cal Raleigh. In five games, he has recorded eight hits, four runs, seven RBIs, and three home runs, with a batting average of .381 and an OPS of 1.201. The Diamondbacks' best hitter over the last seven games has been Joc Pederson, with a batting average of .444 and an OPS of 1.282.

When it comes to pitching, Hancock is a low-strikeout pitcher (16.7 K%) facing a low-strikeout Diamondbacks offense, which ranks among the teams with the least strikeouts in MLB. This could give the Diamondbacks an advantage, as Hancock may struggle to capitalize on his pitching strength. On the other hand, Gallen is a high-strikeout pitcher (28.1 K%) facing a high-strikeout Mariners offense, which has the second-most strikeouts in MLB. This could give Gallen an advantage, as the Mariners' weakness aligns with his pitching strength.

The Game Total for today's game is currently set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Mariners have a moneyline of +110, implying a win probability of 46%, while the Diamondbacks have a moneyline of -130, implying a win probability of 54%. These odds suggest that it will be a close game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Zac Gallen has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock's high usage percentage of his fastball (60% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games (+10.71 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 138 games (+12.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Emerson Hancock has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 1 of his last 4 games (-2.10 Units / -49% ROI)

D-Backs vs Mariners Prediction: D-Backs 4.31 - Mariners 3.6

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