Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/18/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 18, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Logan Webb - Giants
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -155, Giants -1.5 135
• Money Line: D-Backs 140, Giants -165
• Total (Over/Under): 8 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 40%
• San Francisco Giants - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 33.57%
• San Francisco Giants - 66.43%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 18, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants, who currently have a disappointing record of 8-11 this season, will be seeking a turnaround in their performance. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are having a below-average season with a record of 9-10.

The Giants are projected to start right-hander Logan Webb, currently ranked as the #8 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his four starts this year, Webb has achieved a win-loss record of 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA. It's worth noting that his ERA is lower than his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.10, indicating that he may have been unlucky this season and could improve going forward.

On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be right-hander Ryne Nelson, one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Nelson has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.27. However, his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.61 suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in upcoming games.

The Giants' offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB, while the Diamondbacks' offense ranks 11th. The Giants have struggled with a low team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 21st and 29th, respectively, in those categories. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have showcased their power and speed, ranking 11th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases.

In terms of the bullpen, the Giants are ranked as the second-best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, providing a strong support system for their pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 18th, indicating an average performance.

With Logan Webb projected to pitch an average of 6.3 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters, the Giants have an advantage in terms of starting pitching. However, Webb's low strikeout rate will be tested against the Diamondbacks' offense, which has the third-least strikeouts in MLB.

The game total for this matchup is currently set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Giants are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Considering the projections, the Giants have a higher implied team total of 4.47 runs compared to the Diamondbacks' 3.53 runs. However, it's important to note that the Diamondbacks' offense poses a challenge for Webb, who relies on strikeouts, as they rank among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in the league.

Overall, this matchup between the Giants and the Diamondbacks presents an interesting dynamic with the Giants aiming to overcome their struggles and the Diamondbacks looking to maintain their average season. With strong starting pitching and a favorable bullpen, the Giants have a slight edge, but the Diamondbacks' offense could pose a challenge. It will be an exciting game to watch as these teams compete to improve their records in the tough National League West division.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 79th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will bat from his bad side (0) today against Logan Webb

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Gabriel Moreno (the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball batters, Logan Webb and his 55.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's outing matching up with 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 120 games (+25.57 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 106 games (+12.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)

D-Backs vs Giants Prediction: D-Backs 3.49 - Giants 4.73

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