Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Picks 4/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 145, Giants 1.5 -165
• Money Line: D-Backs -120, Giants 100
• Total (Over/Under):8 100

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 52%
• San Francisco Giants - 48%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park on April 20, 2024. The Giants will have the home field advantage, aiming to turn their below-average season around against the struggling D-Backs.

The Giants currently hold a record of 9-11 this season, which falls short of expectations. Their offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, showcasing average performance in team batting average and home runs. However, their struggles are evident in stolen bases, where they rank 29th in the league.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison. While his overall performance this season has been average, our advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #158 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. In contrast, the D-Backs' pitcher, Zac Gallen, is ranked as the #19 best starting pitcher in the league. Gallen has excelled this season with a record of 3-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.64.

Harrison has started four games this year, with a 2-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.70. However, his 4.10 SIERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On average, Harrison is projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which is below average.

Gallen, on the other hand, has started four games with a flawless 3-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.64. However, his 2.96 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Gallen is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average.

The Giants' bullpen ranks as the second-best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the D-Backs' bullpen sits at #21. This could give the Giants an advantage in late-game situations.

In their previous game, the Giants played against an unknown opponent, while the D-Backs faced another unidentified team. However, the Giants' offense has been bolstered by the recent performance of LaMonte Wade Jr. Over the past week, he has recorded five hits, five RBIs, and a home run, with a batting average of .455 and an OPS of 1.290. On the D-Backs' side, Ketel Marte has been their standout player, with 10 hits, seven runs, and two home runs in the past week, boasting a batting average of .400 and an OPS of 1.204.

Considering the projections and current odds, the D-Backs enter this game as slight favorites with an implied win probability of 52%. The Giants, with a 48% implied win probability, will need to rely on their strong bullpen and the recent hot streak of LaMonte Wade Jr. to secure a victory.

Overall, this game promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams striving to improve their records. With the Giants looking to bounce back and the D-Backs aiming to continue their momentum, fans can expect a competitive matchup at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Kyle Harrison.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

With 8 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Kyle Harrison will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Notching 2 dingers in the past week's worth of games, Thairo Estrada has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

D-Backs vs Giants Prediction: D-Backs 4.35 - Giants 3.72

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