Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park for the third game in their series. The Giants currently sit at 25-18, enjoying a solid season, while the Diamondbacks are hovering around .500 with a record of 22-21. This matchup represents a classic National League West battle, with both teams vying for momentum as they head into the summer months.

In their previous game, the Giants managed to secure a victory, bolstering their confidence against a Diamondbacks squad that has been somewhat inconsistent this season. The projections suggest that while both teams are evenly matched, the Giants may have an edge due to their elite bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB. This could play a crucial role, especially if the game remains close late.

Starting for the Giants will be Jordan Hicks, who has had a challenging season thus far with a 1-4 record and an ERA of 5.82. However, his xFIP of 3.57 suggests he has been unlucky, and he projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. Hicks is a high-groundball pitcher facing a Diamondbacks offense that has shown its power, ranking 4th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He has struggled with a 1-3 record and a 6.86 ERA, but like Hicks, his 3.71 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Rodriguez's projection suggests he will pitch 5.8 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, which could be enough to keep the Giants' offense at bay.

Despite the Giants' offense ranking 20th in MLB, they have the advantage of a strong bullpen, while the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 5th, making this matchup intriguing for bettors. With both teams looking to assert their dominance in the division, fans can expect a competitive game, with the Giants slightly favored in the betting markets.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (62.1 vs. 55.9% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Over the past 14 days, Wilmer Flores's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4, San Francisco Giants 4.01

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

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