Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park in a crucial National League West matchup. The Giants, currently holding a record of 24-18, are enjoying a solid season, while the Diamondbacks sit slightly behind at 22-20, showing above-average performance. Last night, the Giants fell to the D-Backs in a close contest, which sets the stage for an exciting rematch.

Robbie Ray is projected to take the mound for the Giants, boasting an impressive 5-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.84 this season. Although his 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, his recent form indicates he can still be effective. However, he faces a tough challenge against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 56 home runs this year. Ray's high flyball rate (39% FB%) could play right into the hands of Arizona's hitters, making this matchup particularly interesting.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is expected to start for the Diamondbacks. With a 6-2 record and a great ERA of 3.28, he also comes with some caution flags, as his 5.54 xERA indicates potential regression. Pfaadt's ability to pitch deeper into games (projected for 6.0 innings) could be an asset, especially against a Giants offense that ranks 20th overall, including a dismal 25th in team batting average.

Despite the Giants' strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, the Diamondbacks' offense is projected to put the pressure on Ray early. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how both pitchers handle the respective lineups. The Giants are currently listed at -105, while the Diamondbacks sit at -115, reflecting a tight contest ahead.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has utilized his secondary offerings 6.6% more often this year (51%) than he did last season (44.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively rank among the best in baseball this year (4th-) in regard to their 90.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.2-mph decline from last season's 94-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Wilmer Flores's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 84.4-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 78.6-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.66, San Francisco Giants 4.13

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.