Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/12/2025

On May 12, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first game of a crucial series at Oracle Park. Both teams are closely matched, with the Giants sitting at 24-17 and the Diamondbacks at 21-20. The Giants are enjoying a solid season, but they need to build on their recent performance, especially after losing their last game in a hard-fought battle.

The Giants will send Justin Verlander to the mound, who, despite being ranked 86th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is projected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs today. However, he has struggled with a 0-2 record this season and an average ERA of 4.50. His high flyball rate of 41% could be a concern against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that has hit 54 home runs this year, ranking 4th in MLB.

Merrill Kelly will take the hill for Arizona, boasting a better record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.09. While his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, Kelly is still projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. The Diamondbacks' offense, while powerful, has been inconsistent, ranking 4th in home runs but only 11th in batting average.

With the Giants' elite bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they have a chance to capitalize on any lead they can establish early. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup in what could be a pivotal moment in the season for both teams. The betting markets currently imply a close contest, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110. The Giants' current projections suggest an average team total of 4.00 runs, but they may need to exceed that against a capable Diamondbacks squad to secure a win.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly's 91-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1-mph drop off from last season's 92-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of San Francisco (#3-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks bats collectively have been one of the best in the league this year (4th-) in regard to their 90.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 62% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.42, San Francisco Giants 4.41

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

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