Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 3, 2024, playoff implications loom large in this National League West matchup. With the Giants sitting at 68-70, they find themselves in a battle for respectability, while the Diamondbacks, boasting a record of 77-61, aim to solidify their playoff position. Notably, the Giants' bullpen ranks 1st in MLB, which could be crucial in tightly contested games.

Both teams are coming off of losses in their last games, but the Diamondbacks are always dangerous thanks to their offensive prowess with a ranking of 2nd best in MLB this season. Randal Grichuk has emerged as a key contributor for Arizona, batting .462 over the past week, which highlights the Diamondbacks' potential to capitalize on any pitching mistakes.

On the mound, the Giants will send Kyle Harrison, a left-handed pitcher with a 4.22 ERA, to the hill. Despite being ranked 177th among MLB starters, he has shown resilience with a 7-6 record this year. However, advanced projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as his xERA of 4.79 indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate thus far.

Opposing him will be Ryne Nelson, a right-handed pitcher who has also had a solid season with a 9-6 record and a similar ERA of 4.22. While Nelson is considered a below-average pitcher, he excels in limiting walks, which could stifle the Giants' patient approach at the plate.

Given the projections showing the Giants scoring an average of 4.29 runs, there may be value in their betting line of +100, suggesting they could outplay expectations in this matchup. With both teams possessing strong bullpens, the outcome will likely hinge on which starter can navigate through the early innings without significant damage.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 2216-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 24th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Bell has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison projects to strikeout an average of 4.4 hitters in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.3) implies that Tyler Fitzgerald has been very fortunate this year with his 32.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 94 games (+25.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 41 games (+39.00 Units / 95% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.02 vs San Francisco Giants 4.43

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