Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 7/6/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks face off in the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, at Petco Park. This National League West matchup sees the Padres, who are having an above-average season with a 48-43 record, take on the Diamondbacks, who stand at 43-44, indicative of an average season. Both teams are battling for position in the standings, making this game crucial for their playoff aspirations.

The Padres will send Matt Waldron to the mound. Waldron, a right-hander, has a 5-7 record with a solid 3.56 ERA over 17 starts this season. However, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Waldron projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.3 walks while striking out 4.7 batters, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks counter with Brandon Pfaadt, also a righty. Pfaadt has a 3-6 record and an average 4.28 ERA over 17 starts. His 3.35 xERA indicates he’s been unlucky and could improve. Pfaadt projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.0 walks, with 4.4 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Padres have the edge, ranking 2nd in team batting average and 9th in home runs. Their offense is anchored by Jackson Merrill, who has been on fire over the last week with a .381 batting average and a 1.000 OPS. The Diamondbacks rank 7th in team batting average and 15th in home runs. Christian Walker has been their standout hitter recently, boasting a .650 batting average and a staggering 2.258 OPS over the last week.

The Padres' bullpen, ranked 9th in the Power Rankings, is another advantage over the Diamondbacks' 19th-ranked bullpen. With a current moneyline of -120, the Padres have an implied win probability of 52%, suggesting a closely contested game but with a slight edge for San Diego.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (93.7 mph) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (92.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Despite posting a .274 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corbin Carroll has experienced some negative variance given the .054 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit rank 21st- in the game for power this year when using their 7.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ha-seong Kim has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 65% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.67 vs San Diego Padres 4.37

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