Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/7/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off in the third game of their series on July 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League West race. The Padres, with a 49-43 record, have been having an above-average season and are seeking to solidify their standing. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, sitting at 43-45, are hovering around .500 and looking to gain some momentum.

The Padres boast a powerful offense, ranking 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 7th in home runs. Their lineup has been particularly hot recently, with David Peralta leading the charge over the last week, sporting a .364 batting average and a 1.091 OPS. This offensive prowess will be crucial as they face one of the league's weaker pitchers, Ryne Nelson. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nelson is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs and 6.0 hits over 5.4 innings, both of which are unfavorable metrics for the Diamondbacks.

Nelson will be up against Dylan Cease, the Padres’ right-hander, who is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB. Cease projects to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters on average. His performance is expected to be a key factor in the game, as the Padres look to capitalize on the Diamondbacks' struggles on the mound.

The Diamondbacks, while having an average season, do have some offensive firepower. They rank 6th in team batting average, and recently, Randal Grichuk has been on fire, hitting .500 with a 1.850 OPS over the last week. However, their middle-of-the-pack rankings in home runs (15th) and stolen bases (17th) suggest that they may struggle to keep up with the Padres' high-powered offense.

The betting odds reflect this, with the Padres as the favorites at -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Diamondbacks are underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring affair, but given the Padres’ offensive capabilities and Cease’s strong projections, they seem well-positioned to take control of this matchup at Petco Park.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has gone to his cut-fastball 7.9% more often this year (22.7%) than he did last season (14.8%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last 7 days, Eugenio Suarez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona's 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #22 offense in the game this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's fastball velocity has increased 1.2 mph this year (96.1 mph) over where it was last season (94.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jurickson Profar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 94-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.19 vs San Diego Padres 4.73

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.