Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 7/9/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will face off at Petco Park on Wednesday night. They have split the first two games of this four-game series. To win this game and take a 2-1 series lead, these teams will need to overcome some inconsistent starting pitching. Continue reading to get my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction for Wednesday night in the NL West.

Our Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick

• Pick: Padres ML
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 9:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt (8‑6, 5.32 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (3‑8, 4.62 ERA)
• Stadium: Petco Park
• Broadcast: Padres.TV

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Brandon Pfaadt has posted a 5.42 ERA this season. He has been roughed up at times this year. On the road in San Diego is not an easy place to pitch and Pfaadt will have to bring his best stuff to pitch well here.
• Dylan Cease has a 4.62 ERA and a disappointing 3-8 record. He has an impressive 121 strikeouts in 97.1 innings. But when he’s not missing bats, he’s struggled.

Bullpen Usage

The Padres rank second in baseball in bullpen ERA this season. Arizona has a bottom-four bullpen ERA. In theory, the Padres should win the battle of the bullpens with that in mind. But this series is still tied 1-1 despite that disparity.

Recent Team Streaks

• Arizona took Monday’s opener but dropped Tuesday’s game. They have alternated wins and losses over their last five outings. Arizona is 2-3 over that time frame.
• The Padres have also alternated wins and losses over their last five games. They have gone 3-2 over that span.

Betting Trends & H2H

1. Arizona leads the season series 3-2 over the Padres this year.
2. The Padres are 28-16 at home this year. Arizona is 22-22 on the road in 2025.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Model Projection

• Score Projection: ARI 3 – SD 5
• Win Probability: ARI 31% | SD 69%

Final Thoughts

Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been shaky in 2025. But Cease has the higher upside in my opinion. I’ll take him to get the win and for the Padres to pick up a second straight victory in this matchup. For those looking at player props, taking Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth to hit home runs is worth doing.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.