Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 7/8/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the first game of their three-game series with the San Diego Padres on Monday. These NL West rivals will run it back on Tuesday night in San Diego. The Padres are slight favorites to win this game thanks to an advantage in the starting pitching department. Here, I will break down this division matchup and give you my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction to determine if that starting pitching edge will be enough for San Diego to win.

Our Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick

  • Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks (45‑46) @ San Diego Padres (48‑42)
  • Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 9:40 PM EDT
  • Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. Nick Pivetta (SD)
  • Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
  • Broadcast: Padres.TV / DBTV / MLBN

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Arizona’s Merrill Kelly has posted a 7‑4 record with a 3.55 ERA. He has been a consistent starter for the Diamondbacks and will look to give them their second straight solid start in this series. Nick Pivetta boasts a stellar 9‑2 record and a 3.25 ERA. He is exactly who the Padres want to see on the mound following a loss.

Bullpen usage

Arizona’s bullpen has struggled for most of this season. But it was the Diamondbacks’ bullpen that was the stronger of the two in Monday’s series opener. San Diego’s relievers will need to get back on track if the Padres are going to avoid a second straight loss to Arizona.

Recent team streaks

The Diamondbacks have won two of their last three games entering this one. San Diego has lost two of its last three.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropOdds
Corbin Carroll (ARI)Over 0.5 Home Runs+280
Eugenio Suárez (ARI)Over 1.5 Total Bases+125
  • Arizona leads the season series between these teams by a 3-1 margin.
  • The Diamondbacks are 22-21 on the road this season. The Padres are 27-16 at home on the year.
  • Diamondbacks games have gone over the total 54.7% of the time this season. That is tied for the fifth-most in MLB.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Model Projection

Score Projection: Arizona 5 – San Diego 4

Win Probability: Arizona 55%, San Diego 45%

Final Thoughts

I’m expecting this to be a close game between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Both starting pitchers are capable of delivering excellent performances every time they take the hill. There are still concerns about the Diamondbacks’ bullpen going into this game. But I think there is value on the underdog here. Arizona has had the upper hand in this season series so far and I expect that to continue in San Diego tonight.


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Home MLB Picks Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 7/8/2025