Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Pick – 7/7/2025

NL West rivals will meet on Monday night. The San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game between two teams aspiring to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings this year. Here, I give you my breakdown of this division matchup, including my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction for Monday night out West.

Our Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick

• Pick: Padres moneyline (-132)
• Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
• Date & Time: Monday, July 7, 2025, 9:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen (6‑9, 5.45 ERA) vs Nick Pivetta (9‑2, 3.25 ERA)
• Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Broadcast: MLB Network, Padres.TV, ARID

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Zac Gallen has struggled with inconsistency this year. He enters this game with a 5.45 ERA. However, Gallen gave up just one earned run in seven innings against the San Francisco Giants in his last start.
• Nick Pivetta has a 9‑2 record and a 3.25 ERA for the Padres this year. He has not taken a loss since May 11 and will look to keep his unbeaten streak alive against the D-Backs.

Bullpen usage

San Diego has a massive bullpen advantage going into this series. The Padres rank fifth in the league in bullpen ERA, while the Diamondbacks are 28th. If Gallen can’t last deep into this game for Arizona, they could be in trouble thanks to their shaky pen.

Recent team streaks

• The Padres are 3-2 over their last five games. They took two out of three games against the Texas Rangers in their last series.
• The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last five games. They dropped two out of three to the Kansas City Royals in their most recent series.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Diamondbacks lead the season series 2-1 after winning the series between these teams in mid-June.
• San Diego is 27-15 at home this season, the Diamondbacks are 21-21 on the road.
• Arizona has gone over the total in 54.1% of their games, the sixth-highest percentage in the majors.
• Nick Pivetta is 6-0 at home this year for the Padres.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Model Projection

Score Projection: Arizona 3 – San Diego 5

Win Probability: Arizona 37%, San Diego 63%

Final Thoughts

I think the Padres hold clear advantages on the mound. That applies to both their starting pitching and relief pitching in this game. Expect Pivetta to help the Padres get out to an early lead by putting zeroes on the board. Then, the bullpen of the Padres should hold things down late. I expect the Diamondbacks to win this game by two runs and to continue their winning ways at Petco Park in 2025.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.