Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 8/3/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park on August 3, 2024, both teams enter this matchup with contrasting fortunes early in the series. The Pirates are currently 55-53, sitting in a mediocre position, while the Diamondbacks boast a better 58-51 record, reflecting their above-average season. Both teams faced off yesterday, and the Pirates will be eager to avenge a loss.

On the mound, the Pirates are set to start Mitch Keller, who has had a solid season despite being ranked the 136th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Keller’s 3.30 ERA is impressive, but his 4.06 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate so far. The right-hander's performance projects an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, with a potential for 4.7 strikeouts. However, his inability to limit hits—projected at 6.1—could be a concern against a potent lineup.

Opposing him is Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks. Montgomery’s ERA of 6.51 signals significant struggles, but he has been unlucky, as indicated by his healthier 4.75 xFIP. He projects for an average start of 5.3 innings, yielding 3.0 earned runs. Given his low strikeout rate of 14.2%, he might be tested by a Pirates lineup that has the 5th most strikeouts in MLB.

The matchup highlights the Pirates' offensive struggles, ranking 28th overall, against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th, making this game pivotal for Pittsburgh. With their current moneyline reflecting close odds, oddsmakers anticipate a competitive contest, but the Pirates will lean heavily on Keller to turn the tide.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's 91-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.6-mph drop off from last year's 92.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Joc Pederson has been lucky this year. His .386 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to league average, Mitch Keller has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Oneil Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 21 games (+32.40 Units / 154% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.03 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.76

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