Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/27/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the rubber match of their three‑game series on Sunday afternoon. Paul Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates today. That makes this game appointment viewing despite the fact that both teams are under .500 for the season. Continue reading to get my breakdown of this game and to get my Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction.
Our Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 27, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen (ARI, 7‑11, 5.58 ERA) vs Paul Skenes (PIT, 5‑8, 1.91 ERA)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet PT and ARID
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Paul Skenes has dominated this season for the Pirates. He has a losing record but also has a sterling 1.91 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. His recent performances include a game where he threw seven shutout innings against Detroit and he will look to toss another gem here. Zac Gallen has struggled to live up to the standard he has set in previous seasons. He is 7-11 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He will need to reclaim his All-Star form to beat Skenes.
Key Players
- Oneil Cruz leads Pittsburgh with 17 home runs and has 42 RBIs on the season.
- Eugenio Suárez will be Arizona’s most dangerous bats as long as he isn’t traded. He has 36 home runs and 87 RBIs this season.
- Geraldo Perdomo is among the Diamondbacks’ best on‑base threats with a team-best .278 average.
Recent team streaks
- The Pirates are 4-1 in their last five games.
- Arizona is 1-4 in its last five games.
- The Pirates are 30-25 at home this season. Pittsburgh is 25-26 on the road.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat |
|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Oneil Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Eugenio Suárez | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Pirates lead the season series between these teams 3-2.
- This is the last time these teams will play in the 2025 MLB season.
- The first two games of this three-game series have gone under their respective totals.
- One team has been shut out in three of the five games these teams have played this year.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 4 – Diamondbacks 3
Win Probability: Pirates 59%, Diamondbacks 41%
Final Thoughts
Paul Skenes is pitching better than anyone on the planet right now. Unless Gallen can find a way to turn back the clock by a couple of seasons, I don’t see any reason that Skenes will be outperformed in this contest. I’ll take the Pirates on the moneyline today and hope that the Bucs can give their ace enough run support to get the victory.
