Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 7/25/2025
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates will open up a three-game weekend series on Friday night in Pittsburgh. The Pirates lead the season series between these teams by a game coming into their final series of games for the year. Before the first pitch from PNC Park, continue reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction.
Our Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Friday, July 25, 2025, 6:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson (6‑2, 3.52 ERA) vs Mike Burrows (1‑3, 4.70 ERA)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet‑PIT and Dbacks.TV
Key Storylines
Pitching form
- Rhyne Nelson: Rhyne Nelson has been solid for the Diamondbacks this season. You’d like to see him bring down his walk total a bit. But he’s given up just 63 hits in 84.1 innings so walks aren’t a huge deal for him.
- Mike Burrows: Burrows has been less reliable for the Pirates this year. He is giving up around a hit per inning and his WHIP is significantly higher than that of Nelson at 1.41.
Bullpen usage
Pittsburgh will have the advantage in the bullpen department in this series. The Pirates have a 3.93 bullpen ERA. That is a full run better than that of the Diamondbacks. Fatigue shouldn’t be a factor after yesterday’s off day for both teams.
Recent team streaks
Arizona has lost three games in a row entering this series. They were swept over three games by the Houston Astros. The Pirates have won three straight games. They swept the Detroit Tigers in their most recent series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Pittsburgh won two out of three games in the first series of the year between these teams.
- Two of the three games between these teams have gone over the total so far in 2025.
- The Diamondbacks are 24-25 on the road this year. Pittsburgh is 29-24 at home.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Diamondbacks 5 – Pirates 3
Win Probability: Diamondbacks 64%, Pirates 36%
Final Thoughts
Starting pitching reliability is a huge factor for me in this Diamondbacks vs Pirates contest from PNC Park. The Diamondbacks have a significant edge in the starting pitching department here. And while the Diamondbacks are worse in the bullpen, I expect them to overcome that by building an early lead to help them win this game on the road.
