Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 8/4/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on August 4, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League series. The Pirates enter this contest with a record of 56-54, while the Diamondbacks sit slightly ahead at 59-52, showcasing their above-average season. In their last game on August 3, the Pirates edged out the Diamondbacks with a 4-2 victory, which marked a crucial win as they aim to gain momentum.

On the mound, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. With a dominant 1.90 ERA and a Power Rankings standing as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Skenes is poised to deliver another strong performance. Although he projects to allow a high number of hits (4.9) and walks (1.5) today, his ability to strike out batters (6.5 projected) remains a key asset against a high-strikeout Pirates offense that ranks 5th in MLB.

Conversely, the Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has struggled this season. Although he recently pitched well in his last start, going 7 innings with no earned runs, his overall numbers reflect an average ERA of 4.53. The projections indicate he may face challenges against a Pirates lineup that, despite ranking 28th in offense, is looking to capitalize on Nelson's weaknesses.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are viewed as the favorites in this matchup, with a projected win probability of 62%. The Pirates' offense, led by Joey Bart, who has caught fire recently, could be the difference-maker against Nelson. With the game total set at an average of 8.0 runs, it promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams look to assert their dominance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's cutter utilization has spiked by 5% from last year to this one (14.8% to 19.8%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.2% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2206 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2276 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Bryan De La Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 101.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.85 Units / 46% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.91 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.75

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