Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Odds & Picks – 5/31/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In an MLB matchup set to take place on May 31, 2024, the New York Mets will play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. The Mets, currently sporting a record of 23-33 this season, are facing a tough campaign, while the Diamondbacks, with a 25-31 record, are also struggling. The game will be the second in a series between these two National League teams.

On the pitching mound, the Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Severino, who has started 10 games this year and holds a 2-2 win/loss record. Severino has been performing well with an ERA of 3.22, although his 4.23 xFIP suggests potential regression in his future performances. On the other side, the Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who has started 7 games this season and holds a 3-2 win/loss record. Montgomery has an ERA of 4.69, indicating average performance.

When it comes to offense, the Mets rank as the 21st best team in MLB, while the Diamondbacks rank slightly higher at 14th. However, the Mets have been struggling in key areas, ranking 24th in team batting average, 11th in home runs, and 15th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have performed better, ranking 11th in batting average, 19th in home runs, and an impressive 3rd in stolen bases.

Defensively, the Mets bullpen is ranked 23rd, while the Diamondbacks sit at 16th, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In terms of individual performance, Severino is considered the 127th best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers, while Montgomery is considered below average.

Looking at the betting odds, both teams are currently set at -110 moneyline with an implied win probability of 50%. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close one, with no clear favorite. The Game Total is set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Mets have a low implied team total of 3.50 runs, as do the Diamondbacks.

Overall, the Mets and Diamondbacks are both struggling this season, and the game is expected to be closely contested based on the betting odds. The performance of the starting pitchers, Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. With the Mets having the home-field advantage, they will look to capitalize on their strengths and improve their record in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this year (91.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

This year, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 29.14 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his home runs, Starling Marte has suffered from bad luck this year. His 17.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 58.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be sensible to expect better results for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+3.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 33% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.06 vs New York Mets 3.96

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