Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 9/14/2025
Arizona wraps its interleague set in Minneapolis on Sunday with a daytime first pitch and playoff urgency in tow. The Diamondbacks’ offense has been steady down the stretch, while Minnesota has scuffled through early September. Both teams have won a game in this series so far and will look to secure the series win with a victory today. Here, you will find my Diamondbacks vs Twins prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Diamondbacks vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Use the bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets guaranteed when betting this game!
Game Snapshot
- Head-to-Head: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 2:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Nabil Crismatt vs Bailey Ober
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Probable Pitchers: Nabil Crismatt carries a 2-0 record with a 3.24 ERA across 25 innings for the Diamondbacks. Bailey Ober enters at 5-7 with an ERA a bit above 5.00 for the Twins.
- Run production edge: Arizona averages 4.9 runs per game and Minnesota sits near 4.2. The Diamondbacks also rate higher in slugging percentage and home run output.
- Late-inning picture: Minnesota moved elite closer Jhoan Durán at the deadline, thinning a relief corps that already had its inconsistencies. Arizona’s bullpen has been volatile at times, but the Twins’ relief group no longer has an overpowering closer.
Pitching comparison
- Nabil Crismatt, RHP, ARI: 2-0, 3.24 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 17 K, 7 BB. He is coming off a shorter outing at San Francisco but previously worked into the seventh with limited damage against Texas. His changeup-heavy approach limits barrels when he’s locating early-count strikes.
- Bailey Ober, RHP, MIN: 5-7, 5.08 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 129.1 IP, 105 K, 28 BB. His elevated four-seamers have left the yard frequently, with Ober allowing 29 home runs this season. Against a lineup with multiple uppercut swings, his home run susceptibility is a concern.
Recent team streaks
- The Diamondbacks have won two of their last three games heading into today.
- Minnesota has lost three out of its last four.
Best Player Props
| Prop Type | Player | Play |
|---|---|---|
| Total Bases | Corbin Carroll, ARI | Over 1.5 |
| Home Run | Byron Buxton, MIN | To hit a HR |
| Total Bases | Ketel Marte, ARI | Over 1.5 |
| Strikeouts | Bailey Ober, MIN | Under 5.5 |
| Strikeouts | Nabil Crismatt, ARI | Over 4.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams are 1-1 against each other so far this season.
- This is the final game scheduled between the Diamondbacks and Twins in 2025.
Diamondbacks vs Twins Model Projection
Score Projection: Diamondbacks 5 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Diamondbacks 54%, Twins 46%
Final Thoughts
Arizona carries the cleaner offensive profile, the sharper recent form, and a more trustworthy early-game plan against a starter prone to home runs. Crismatt’s contact management, coupled with a lineup that can create extra-base hits through both power and speed, tilts this contest their direction. With Minnesota’s bullpen no longer anchored by an elite closer, the late innings lean slightly to the visitors. Play the Diamondbacks on the moneyline, as I project a 5-4 Arizona victory.
